A policy report by the analyst Barak M. Seener warns that Britain faces threats from Iranian-backed terrorism, sabotage and cyber attacks that bombing Tehran's military would not defeat. The report argues that damage inflicted on Iran in the war has made it more dependent on armed groups, covert operatives and hackers.
What the report argues
A weakened Iran could be harder to deter, it says, because responsibility for attacks is spread across groups and individuals whose links to Tehran are hard to prove. Iran does not need to rebuild its full conventional arsenal: surviving missiles and drones, together with proxy militias, cyber operations and overseas covert activity, let it apply pressure without committing its own forces. Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis are described as increasingly important as Hezbollah has weakened, and the groups share expertise in missile, drone and maritime operations.
Attribution is the central difficulty. Tehran can supply money, weapons, training or intelligence while local actors decide how and when to act. The report says protection should extend beyond military defences to ports, logistics hubs, diplomatic premises and critical infrastructure.
What officials say
MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum said on Tuesday that Iran-linked operations had led to more than 50 arrests in Britain over the past year, much of the aggression directed at Jewish communities, and that Iran wants to target harder targets such as military sites. He said Iran uses criminals to threaten regime opponents, Iranian media organisations and Israeli sites, and that members of the Revolutionary Guard were behind a front organisation that claimed arson and sabotage against Jewish communities in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, including attacks on ambulances, synagogues and businesses.
Counter-terrorism police are investigating suspicious activity near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, a base used by American bombers. Seven men were arrested and later released on bail. Examination of vehicles found no improvised explosive devices, though a quantity of petrol was recovered. Vicki Evans, the senior national coordinator for counter-terrorism policing, said investigators are examining all possible angles, including possible foreign state involvement. A dozen US B-1 bombers were withdrawn from the base after the incident, and President Donald Trump referred to threats when discussing their departure.
Iran rejects accusations of malign activity in Britain. No British government response to the report has been published.
