More Britons now see the Conservatives than Reform UK as the main opposition to Labour, a new opinion poll finds. Thirty-five per cent name the Conservatives and 32 per cent name Reform. As recently as May, Reform led on that measure by 28 points. Among people who voted Labour in 2024, 42 per cent see the Conservatives as the main opposition and 29 per cent see Reform.
The survey also gauges Prime Minister Andy Burnham's position. Forty-three per cent say it is more likely than unlikely that he wins the next general election, against 33 per cent who disagree. Four in ten expect either a Labour majority (19 per cent) or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party (21 per cent), up from one in three in September.
Opinions about the alternatives are shifting. Thirty-three per cent think Reform leader Nigel Farage is likely to become prime minister and 32 per cent say the same of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, whereas in May half thought Farage likely. Seventy-nine per cent think it unlikely that Green Party leader Zack Polanski will reach Downing Street, and 78 per cent say the same of Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey.
Keiran Pedley, the polling firm's UK director of politics, said the findings reflect a political environment still in flux after Burnham took office and after recent difficulties for Reform. The public is more likely than a month ago to see Labour as at least the largest party after the next election, he said, adding that the so-called Burnham bounce looks real. The Conservatives, he said, are making progress in the contest for voters on the right, but it remains to be seen whether that becomes a decisive shift or only a low point from which Reform recovers.
A Conservative source said Badenoch and her team are taking the fight to the government, while accusing Reform of letting Labour off the hook, and described the party as the only one able to unite the country behind a common-sense plan to get Britain working again.
