The United States and Iran each say they control the Strait of Hormuz, and the figures they cite do not match. Al Jazeera, reporting from Tehran on 17 October, said dozens of ships have been attacked in or near the waterway this month, and that October has seen the most attacks since the US-Israel war on Iran began on 28 February.
UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) recorded at least 12 vessels attacked in the week to 16 October, but said it "is struggling to accurately report true number of attacks" because most attacked ships do not report to it. Of the 12, half continued to their destination or reached port, one sank, two were disabled, and three were damaged or had an unconfirmed outcome. On Saturday a tanker reported being hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat about 78 nautical miles north-east of Jubail, Saudi Arabia, damaging its aft port quarter. Al Jazeera describes that as a new type of attack. Over the same seven days UKMTO logged 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits, mostly dry bulk cargo.
The American account comes from Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command. In a video message he said 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait in the past week; the article notes those figures are unverified. "Let me be clear: The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran," he said, blaming the rise in attacks on the "desperation" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US also says its naval blockade has cost Iran $25 billion in oil export income and that it recently seized $350 million in Iranian cryptocurrency financing. Both are US claims and neither has been independently confirmed.
Tehran has not published exact figures on attacks or transits and says Washington inflates its numbers to promote its naval campaign. The IRGC says the strait is unsafe for vessels that do not coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a body set up during the war to manage passage. On Saturday it said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude had caught fire after hitting a mine on an "unauthorised" route. Iran's Press TV shared footage it said showed the fire, which has not been verified.
CENTCOM disputes the mine account. It says it has cleared the strait of mines and that ships are being struck by projectiles. On Thursday the US said the container ship M/V GFS Pride was hit by an IRGC projectile, not a mine as Iran had claimed, and sank while being towed to shore. That is the US version as reported.
The energy data show the strain. Kpler put oil flows through Hormuz at 11.6 million barrels a day in the seven days to 13 October, about 68 per cent of the pre-war baseline of 17.1 million. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday, its first time at that level since May. The strait normally carries about a fifth of global oil and gas flows. Al Jazeera links the price moves to Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and to rising expectations of US-Iran escalation.
The US has not responded militarily to the latest attacks, and there is concern that it could escalate after the 3 November midterm elections. US media report that President Donald Trump has told the military to stay ready for larger strikes after the vote, possibly including the GBU-43/B "mother of all bombs"; that report is unverified. Pakistan and Qatar are among the mediators still relaying messages, and no breakthrough is expected soon. Iran's Acting Defence Minister, Majid Ibn Reza, said on Saturday that Iranian missiles, not American bombs, will decide the war's future. "Your bombs will explode elsewhere; in your global reputation, the US economy, and even your electoral calculations," he said.
Neither side's figures can be checked independently from the reporting available.
