Israel votes on 27 October in a race that is too close to call, and relations with Europe are among the casualties of the war in Gaza and the settlement drive in the West Bank. This is an analytical feature, and much of it rests on expert opinion.
What Europe has done
Britain has banned goods from illegal settlements, and its foreign secretary has accused settlers of ethnic cleansing. Ireland and Spain have long led the criticism, and Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has condemned what he calls a genocide in Gaza. European countries have withdrawn from the Eurovision song contest over Israel's participation, and European footballers have refused to play Israel's team. Governments have also shifted from targeted sanctions on far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich towards broader scrutiny of the state. Analysts list further possible steps: recognising Palestinian statehood, suspending the EU-Israel association agreement and banning imports from settlements. Germany's last two governments have been criticised for resisting such action.
What the polls and analysts say
Opinion on both sides is hardening. A 2025 Israeli survey found 67 per cent of Israelis viewed the EU mainly as an adversary and 14 per cent as a friend. In Europe, unfavourable views of Israel over the year to spring 2026 rose from 61 to 69 per cent in Britain, from 66 to 75 per cent in Italy and from 64 to 73 per cent in Germany. In Israel, 92 per cent of Jewish Israelis rated the military's handling of the Iran war highly in April and 80 per cent backed continuing the fight against Hezbollah. In September, 72 per cent said they would not accept withdrawal from Gaza without keeping an Israeli security perimeter inside it.
The analysts quoted are pessimistic. One said a Netanyahu return alongside the far right would make certain things irreversible. Another analyst, Menachem Klein, said the current government has done huge damage to relations with friends and allies. A third argued that the ruling elites in several European countries are trying to align themselves with their publics. A commentator, Yaakov Katz, noted that Israel's diplomatic isolation is barely discussed in the election campaign.
